Mar 26, 2008
Is it possible that the cruise ship industry is facing a major glut of capacity in the Mediterranean this summer? I tend to think so
There used to be a joke about a year when all the cruise lines decided that the industry needed one more ship. So each of nine cruise lines proceeded to build that ship.
An excessive reaction to a perceived need seems underway in the Mediterranean. Because conventional wisdom believes that hundreds of thousands of Americans will replace a traditional tour to Europe (where the Euro has made matters overly expensive) with a Mediterranean cruise (priced in Dollars), every single cruise line seems to have assigned a whopping and unprecedented percentage of its fleet to Mediterranean cruising this summer. Elsewhere, like in the Caribbean, cruises have been drastically reduced, while the newest and biggest of all the ships will be heading to Barcelona/Rome/Livorno/Athens and thereabouts.
Have they miscalculated? Will they be frantically discounting many of those sailings? I tend to think so. Though every cruise line exec, when interviewed, will voice total confidence about the coming season (see their interviews in the February 18 issue of Travel Weekly, "Most cruise lines insist softness is not an issue in the Med"), one cruise line -- Crystal Cruises -- has already quietly extended the season when heavy discounts will be available on its ships, and one of its executives has already uttered that unmentionable word, "softness."
When cruise line officials say that "the economic slowdown hasn't hurt us at all," or "we haven't noticed the slightest slowing, the smallest recession," or "consumer confidence just hasn't declined as far as vacations are concerned," then you just have to know they're lying.
Here's one situation where, contrary to the usual advice, it might pay to wait to book your Mediterranean cruise. Sometime around late April, the websites advertising discounted cruises -- www.vacationstogo.com has the most comprehensive list -- will almost certainly begin blossoming with all sorts of cut-rate sailings. This type of overreaction to a perceived need (e.g., flinging every boat to Europe) happens over and over in the travel industry. And it will most certainly happen here. If you are at all tempted by the thought of a European cruise, wait a bit. The prices will go down from their currently high levels.
Write and read comments about this post.
An excessive reaction to a perceived need seems underway in the Mediterranean. Because conventional wisdom believes that hundreds of thousands of Americans will replace a traditional tour to Europe (where the Euro has made matters overly expensive) with a Mediterranean cruise (priced in Dollars), every single cruise line seems to have assigned a whopping and unprecedented percentage of its fleet to Mediterranean cruising this summer. Elsewhere, like in the Caribbean, cruises have been drastically reduced, while the newest and biggest of all the ships will be heading to Barcelona/Rome/Livorno/Athens and thereabouts.
Have they miscalculated? Will they be frantically discounting many of those sailings? I tend to think so. Though every cruise line exec, when interviewed, will voice total confidence about the coming season (see their interviews in the February 18 issue of Travel Weekly, "Most cruise lines insist softness is not an issue in the Med"), one cruise line -- Crystal Cruises -- has already quietly extended the season when heavy discounts will be available on its ships, and one of its executives has already uttered that unmentionable word, "softness."
When cruise line officials say that "the economic slowdown hasn't hurt us at all," or "we haven't noticed the slightest slowing, the smallest recession," or "consumer confidence just hasn't declined as far as vacations are concerned," then you just have to know they're lying.
Here's one situation where, contrary to the usual advice, it might pay to wait to book your Mediterranean cruise. Sometime around late April, the websites advertising discounted cruises -- www.vacationstogo.com has the most comprehensive list -- will almost certainly begin blossoming with all sorts of cut-rate sailings. This type of overreaction to a perceived need (e.g., flinging every boat to Europe) happens over and over in the travel industry. And it will most certainly happen here. If you are at all tempted by the thought of a European cruise, wait a bit. The prices will go down from their currently high levels.
Write and read comments about this post.
Labels: cruise
Fifty years ago, 
Arthur Frommer is generally acknowledged to be the nation's foremost travel authority. He is the founder of the
