If you are at all interested in travel -- if you think it important to read about travel, think about travel, write about or discuss travel -- then you must also concern yourself with questions of energy. Travel is made possible by cars, buses, trains and planes, and those tools of transportation are propelled almost entirely by oil.

An important book of our time is a just-published work by two Canadian professors, Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl, called Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil. It makes some urgent and -- to some -- frightening predictions about what will be required to allow persons to continue to travel (or move about) just short years from now.

Transport Revolutions is published by Earthscan of London, and is available, among other places, at Amazon.com. It is a scholarly and heavily documented work, but written with fervor and urgency. It is currently being discussed and reviewed by both scholars and politicians all over the world, because it is an objective and factual picture of the consequence of relying on oil and the internal combustion engine for our future travel needs.

In Vancouver last month, I had lunch with one of its co-authors, Anthony Perl (Professor of Political Science at Simon Fraser University), and I have been carefully reading the book in all the weeks since. In future posts I will be discussing various points it makes, but for now I'd like to introduce one (out of many) of its leading propositions.

According to Transport Revolutions, the worldwide production of petroleum -- conventional oil, heavy oil (from tar sands), natural gas, deepwater oil, polar oil, oil from the continental shelf, and natural gas, in other words, the total production of all petroleum liquids -- will peak no later than 2012 and will thereafter decline at a rate of at least 1% a year. And this is taking into account all the possible future discoveries of additional oil fields, all the secondary recoveries of oil, all the technological advances in extracting heavy oils, every possible favorable expansion of petroleum production. No matter how much additional drilling is done, the finite supplies of oil are such that production will peak -- at the latest -- just four years from now.

To repeat: the world is depleting the finite supply of oil at such a rate as to cause production to peak in just four short years and thereafter to decline rapidly.

A reduction rate of 1% per year, according to them, is devastating, and will cause radical dislocations in humankind's ability to use the internal combustion engine as the major means of moving about. Our ability to travel by car, bus, ship or plane will be gravely affected, and we will be forced to reduce the use of internal combustion engines in favor of new inventions for which we can only pray, like efficient motors operated by electricity (if such motors can be developed).

Electrical means of transport are the only salvation, and only if they are developed can people continue to travel (or move about) in the numbers that travel today. Enormous resources must thus be devoted to developing such new methods, including taxpayer-financed funds .

But while it is conceivable, barely conceivable, that electric cars, buses, streetcars, trains and even ships can take over our means of transport, air transportation presents problems that cannot be solved through the use of electric motors. (The authors suggest that the conversion of giant passenger cruise ships into transport vehicles may permit large numbers of people to continue traveling trans-Atlantic or inter-continental for an efficient and acceptable use of oil per person, provided they are willing to devote five days to the journey in each direction).

The above is an awkward condensation of simply one of the well-argued points in Transport Revolutions, and I hope to be more specific in future essays on the subject. Meantime, Transport Revolutions is an important book and the whole subject is something that all of us should ponder.

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Labels: environment, trends

If you ever needed proof that the United States was approaching a recession, you have only to look at the traffic to Las Vegas. For the first time since September 11, arriving passengers there have fallen off -- and their numbers have been reduced for no fewer than the past five months.

These are official figures of McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. They show a 2.5% drop-off in November, a 3.2% decline in December, 2.8% in January, and 1.7% in March. While traffic slightly improved in February, that was only because of an extra day resulting from Leap Year. The March figure was worse still because the largest convention in the United States took place in Las Vegas for five days in that month -- and yet total monthly traffic fell nevertheless.

The situation was foretold by the fact that the MGM hotels in Vegas have recently laid off hundreds of their workers. When my daughter Pauline first learned of those firings, she invited a Las Vegas expert to appear on our Sunday radio program to discuss whether a slump was taking place. Following the party line, he of course denied anything negative was happening, but the airport statistics now prove a slow-down to be the case.

So why should we be discussing this? Only because you may be among those dreaming of a Vegas vacation. There will obviously be big hotel discounts in the weeks to come, and similar reductions in the price of air-and-land packages to Sin City. Keep watching www.vegas.com, or www.lasvegasadvisor.com for the latest bargains.

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Labels: las vegas, trends

7. The increase in bargain-priced re-positioning cruises. As more and more cruiseships alternate between the Caribbean (winter) and European waters (spring and summer), and need to move between one area and the other (re-positioning), there's been a tremendous rise in the number of cruises costing as little as $60 a day. Go to VacationsToGo.com (www.vacationstogo.com) for the most clearly-identified listing of re-positioning cruises.

8. The emergence of the European river cruise. Cruises along the Rhine and the Danube, in particular, are soaring in popularity and increasing in frequency. For an unusually relaxing, and very different form of vacationing, you might consider one.

9. The emergence of medical and dental tourism. Urged on by a new book entitled Patients Beyond Borders by Josef Woodman, many thousands of medically-uninsured Americans are now seeking low-cost medical or dental care abroad, in clinics and hospitals accredited by the same organizations which accredit clinics and hospitals in the U.S.

10. The almost universal need for a passport. As directed by the Department of Homeland Security, it is now necessary to possess a passport if you plan to fly anywhere in the world -- even simply within the Western Hemisphere. Get one.

11. The come-back of Priceline.com. By first using a website called BiddingForTravel.com (www.biddingfortravel.com), which tells you how other travelers have succeeded in using the opaque Priceline, an increasing number of savvy travelers have had success with Priceline. Some, who regard Priceline as unsuitable for air travel, are making use of it for hotel rooms.

12. The increasing regard for Amtrak. At last, serious efforts are afoot in Congress to place Amtrak on a firm financial footing; and ridership on the national train system is increasing each year.

13. The emergence of hidden hotel fees. To their discredit, hotel executives have greatly increased their use of this improper tactic -- like charging $15-a-day "resort fees" for beach towels which remained in your room. Never make a booking without demanding to know whether hidden fees will increase your bill.

14. The startling increase in zany Las Vegas weddings. Your minister is disguised as Elvis Presley. Another rises eerily from a coffin. The wedding march is to the melody of "Viva Las Vegas". For a reason I will never understand, increasing numbers of couples are opting to be married in a weird Las Vegas wedding chapel -- and that, too, is a major recent development in travel.

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Labels: tips, trends

While speaking at a travel show last weekend, my daughter and I were asked to name what we considered the top travel bargains for the year ahead, both in destinations and in facilities for travel. Here's how we answered:

1. China. With apologies for seeming like a broken record, we must again start with China. Despite a slowly-strengthening currency, China remains available at unbeatable rates (including airfare there) from China Focus (www.chinafocustravel.com), Chinaspree.com (www.chinaspree.com), Rim-Pac (www.rim-pac.com), Ritz Tours (www.ritztours.com), Pacific Delight Tours (www.pacificdelighttours.com), China Travel Service (www.chinatravelservice.com), and many others.

2. Vietnam. Its touristic cost of living is remarkably low, and its shopping prices are minor miracles (like custom-tailored suits in Hoi An for less than $150). A great many independent travelers simply book a direct United Airlines flight from San Francisco to Ho Chi Minh City (via Hong Kong), and then pick up accommodations as they move along throughout the country.

3. Panama. Fastest-developing country in Central America, receiving ever-growing numbers of cost-conscious vacationers, as well as U.S. retirees looking for a cheap second home. The skyline of Panama City is beginning to resemble Hong Kong or New York's financial district -- except that those skyscrapers are residential condos.

4. Nicaragua and Honduras. Both coming up fast as favorites for adventuresome tourists. Honduras' off-shore island of Utila (for scuba-diving) is the latest discovery. Nicaragua's prices for lodgings and meals are surely among the lowest in the area.

5. Costa Rica. It remains immensely popular, and though it's gaining swanky accommodations, it remains inexpensive for the tourist who searches out low-cost lodgings, like those available from Bells' Home Hospitality in San Jose (see our previous blog, in "Search this blog").

6. Dominican Republic. Home of the low-cost all-inclusive hotel. Giant crowds simply looking to laze in the sun are flocking to properties where all you do is eat three enormous buffet meals a day and doze in a chaise lounge.

7. Buenos Aires and Santiago, Chile. Located surprisingly close to one another, both benefit from currencies that are weak against the U.S. dollar. Large numbers of Americans are also starting their South American stays in Buenos Aires, and then journeying further south to the natural attractions of Patagonia.

8. The U.S. National Parks. A drop-off in foreign visitors since 9/11, and high gas prices, have reduced traffic to the most famous of the parks: Yellowstone, Yosemite, Grand Canyon, Great Smokey Mountains.

9. Bali in the Indian Ocean. Its cordial attitudes towards the visitor, coupled with its low price structure, has re-started the flow of tourism, overcoming the long-ago effects of two terrorist attacks on beachside nightclubs.

10. Sicily. Its price structure is markedly lower than in the rest of Italy; its method of touring is a low-cost, self-drive auto making a complete circumference of the island along its coastal road, stopping in places like Erice, Agrigento, Siracusa, Taormina.

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Labels: deals, trends

Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) is the Southwest Airlines of Great Britain (the budget champion), and so is easyJet (www.easyjet.com). Both of them fly at absurdly low prices from British cities to locations throughout western and eastern Europe. They siphon off so much business from domestic British transportation (i.e., they cause the English population to vacation on the continent rather than in England, Scotland or Wales) that they have recently come in for violent criticism from Travelodge (www.travelodge.co.uk), which is the Motel 6 chain of Great Britain (offering ultra-cheap lodgings). Travelodge claims that both Ryanair and easyJet are destroying the British hotel industry by causing more and more Brits to fly outside of Britain for their holidays and vacations. Got it?

Now why is this of interest to us Yanks? Well, there's trouble in the British/European industry of ultra-low-cost carriers. Because of an incipient recession in Britain, and the skyrocketing price of fuel raising the price of air tickets, bookings are down on the budget airlines, and both Ryanair and easyJet are enjoying load factors not of 95% (on which they rely for their rock-bottom pricing) but of 80%, which doesn't produce a profit at the rates they're charging. The president of Ryanair recently announced that he expects a sharp drop in results for 2008, and everyone among his competitors are also scared.

The various British newsletters dealing with the "LCC's" (Low-Cost Carriers), of which I read one, are growing alarmist. The newsletter I see is openly predicting that two or three of the European low-cost carriers must either merge or go under. It all means that you should exercise extreme caution in booking one of these services in the months to come. If you can, make your purchase via credit card and try to pay as late as possible.

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Labels: airlines, trends

At the Los Angeles Times Travel Show in Long Beach, California, at which I spoke this past weekend, there was always a crowd in front of the booth of the American Association for Nude Recreation. Staffed by well-spoken, dignified and fully-clothed representatives the booth carried listings for scores and scores of nude resorts in the United States, in what I counted as 42 states. States with the largest number of nude resorts? California, Florida, Texas. Yet even Mississippi has one of them -- and more amazingly, Utah has three (Family Skinnydippers in Sandy, UT; Utah All-Natural Recreation in South Jordan, UT; and Utah Naturists in Salt Lake City).

The American Association for Nude Recreation (AANR) claims its membership is now at an historic peak of 50,000 members and their families. If you'd like to join, or obtain their literature, visit www.aanr.com or phone tel. 800/TRY-NUDE.

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Labels: trends

Every few weeks or so, it seems, I receive a mailing from American Express Publishing that's designed to sell subscriptions to Travel + Leisure magazine. Except it doesn't say exactly that.

The mailing features a gift that they're bestowing on me -- either participation in a million-dollar sweepstakes or a voucher for a free companion air ticket. Out of the goodness of their heart! If I want to receive the voucher for the companion air ticket, I need only pay the forgettable sum of $2.99. But when I pay that $2.99, I automatically get a short-term subscription to Travel + Leisure which is later automatically renewed unless I affirmatively notify them to cancel it.

Let me repeat the deal. Several months after the "free" subscription begins, a more serious charge will automatically be assessed to me for a real subscription, unless I first ask them to cancel it. Thereafter, there will be "continuous annual renewal" unless I take the time to shake off my lethargy to take the steps needed to cancel.

It is obvious that American Express Publishing is hoping that normal human inertia will block a large percentage of such subscribers from ever canceling their subscriptions to this elegant travel publication. The tactic must work, else why would they be bestowing these valuable "gifts" on us?

What's so striking about the tactic is that Travel + Leisure is the most upscale, hoity-toity travel magazine you can imagine, never hesitating to write about the world's single most expensive travel facilities. It undoubtedly advises advertisers that its subscribers are "la crème de la crème." And yet these transparent tactics are aimed at the kind of Americans who respond to this nonsense -- and they ain't a very upscale group. I wonder how many of the subscriptions to Travel + Leisure are achieved through "automatic renewal" following a free gift bestowed on people hungry for a gift?

It is depressing enough when small businesses in America use such tactics as I've described. It is sadder still when one of America's largest, oldest and most prestigious companies stoops to that level. Or am I thinking of the American Express that used to exist?

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Labels: magazines, trends

Tricksters all over the nation make a good living by selling phony ID cards identifying the bearer as a travel agent. With one, goes the claim, you'll be able to obtain discounts on car rentals, hotels, and tours. Don't you believe it. Increasingly, travel suppliers are requiring that an alleged travel agent display an IATAN card with picture ID, issued by the international association of airlines. To get one, you must go through an elaborate procedure proving 1) that you earn at least $5,000 a year selling travel, 2) that you spend at least 20 hours a week selling travel, and 3) that you are affiliated with an authorized travel agency belonging to various industry associations. And beyond that requirement, you must pay $30 a year.

Virtually all auto rental agencies, cruiselines, airlines, or hotels, will now require that you flash an IATAN card when requesting a discount. They will give no credence to any other form of identification (although a few gullible souls will recognize the CLIA card issued by the Cruise Line International Association).

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Labels: tips, trends

Several weeks ago, I drew a storm of criticism onto my head by suggesting, in a blog, that current State Department and Department of Homeland Security officials were responsible for a recent sharp drop in incoming tourism to the United States (see "Why hasn't tourism to the U.S. soared?"). Several readers wrote that my criticism of these eminent people was based simply on my political beliefs. I had pointed out that in numerous countries, it required several months simply to obtain an appointment with U.S. consular officials to discuss an application for a visa. And that such torpor could not help but discourage travel to the U.S.

There's now been another development. As if the failure to issue visas expeditiously weren't bad enough, the Department of Homeland Security has proposed (as reported in the trade press on June 25) to create additional obstacles to those foreign citizens who don't need visas to travel here. Under the Visa Waiver Program, citizens of 27 countries (like Great Britain and Ireland) don't require visas; the Department is proposing that these exempt individuals, in advance of departure, provide the U.S. with biographical data and their proposed travel plans within the U.S. They would then receive electronic authorization to proceed with those plans. A nation that cannot issue visas on time is expected to quickly and correctly review the travel plans of millions of other would-be tourists to the U.S.

In what way do these new obstacles protect us? How would such a requirement prevent a terrorist from simply e-mailing that he is planning to visit friends and relatives? Or to sightsee and attend the theater in New York? And don't such silly added steps simply discourage tourists from coming here?

So it's necessary to repeat my earlier contention. With so much at stake, with so much income, including tax income, to be enjoyed through added tourism, with so favorable a time for incoming tourism because of the weak U.S. dollar, the failure to create smooth and reasonably quick procedures for the issuance of visas is a catastrophic oversight. The further proposal to require that foreigners advise us in writing of their plans is loonier still. The entire situation calls for intervention by grown-ups.

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Labels: passports, trends

I recently spent a day fielding phone calls from persons who have just returned from the World Travel and Tourism Conference in Lisbon. The subject of their news: the calamitous drop in the amount of incoming travel to the United States.

Since 2000, tourism to the United States from abroad has declined by 10%. Though all nations lost tourism in the immediate wake of September 11, virtually all other nations have made up the deficit and forged ahead. Since 2000, tourism to Britain has increased by 13%. Tourism to Australia has increased by 21%. Tourism to France has increased by 20%.

If tourism to the United States had increased over the past six years, the nation would have benefited enormously. For every one percentage point of additional foreign travel to the United States, our country would have enjoyed 12.3 billion dollars in additional income, 150,000 new jobs, 3.3 billion dollars in extra payroll, $2.1 billion dollars in additional tax revenues.

Why have we lost incoming tourism? In these days of a weak dollar, the U.S. has become a remarkably cheap country for most foreign tourists; by all rights, our incoming tourism should have soared. The overwhelming consensus of the World Travel and Tourism Conference was that we have made it extraordinarily difficult for most foreign tourists to obtain visas for travel into the United States. In some countries, it requires several weeks simply to make an appointment to apply for such a visa at a U.S. consulate. Let me repeat that: not only is the application process a long-term procedure, but it requires several weeks simply to make an appointment to make an application!

As in so many other areas, the situation results from the sheer incompetence of the current administration. With so much at stake, with so much income, including tax income, to be enjoyed through added tourism, with so favorable a time for incoming tourism because of the weak U.S. dollar, the failure to create smooth and reasonably quick procedures for the issuance of visas is a catastrophic oversight, matched by so many similar oversights by the executive branch of government. Remember the response to Hurricane Katrina?

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Labels: trends

According to the U.N.'s World Tourism Organization, la belle France was the world's most heavily visited tourist destination in 2006, receiving 78 million visitors from abroad (a figure larger than the population of that country). In second place was Spain and in third place was the United States.

But here's the unexpected news: Foreign tourism to China is increasing so rapidly that China in this coming year will pass up the United States for third position, and by 2010 will become the world's second most popular tourist destination. Ten or so later years from now, it will be number one, replacing France as the champion of all vacation nations.

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Labels: trends