Today

by Richard Calland, Executive Director, Open Democracy Advice Centre and author of Anatomy of South Africa: Who Holds the Power?

With the most advanced economy on the continent, South Africa is stable but not tranquil. Since Nelson Mandela was inaugurated as the country's first black president in 1994, the country has basked in the afterglow of an internationally admired, state-of-the-art constitution, and constant, unprecedented growth -- peaking at around 5.6% -- combined with relatively low inflation. But the lack of tranquillity can be seen in the intemperate language of political spats, and in chronic, structural inequalities and poverty.

When broadly defined, South Africa's unemployment is as high as 41% -- a figure disputed by the much-respected and popular finance minister, Trevor Manual, who once responded that if unemployment were this high, "we would have a revolution on our hands." Of course, he is partly right: There is a significant informal economy. But the fact remains -- modest growth notwithstanding -- that changes in technology and the global economy have resulted in a net loss of jobs since 1994. Despite the shiny veneer of "first world" South Africa, the excitement of hosting the upcoming 2010 World Soccer Cup -- Africa's first -- and the excellence of its many new institutions of democratic governance, the country has one of the worst levels of inequality in the world. And while there's been a massive increase in social welfare grants, which reduced the number of poor from 18.5 million in 2000 to 15.4 million in 2004, the human suffering behind these statistics remains appalling.

President Thabo Mbeki, painfully aware of his "two nations, two economies" theme, returned to office for a second term in 2004, having garnered almost 70% of the vote, and promised that having lined the empty coffers inherited from the apartheid government, the ANC was finally ready to deliver on the promise of "a better life for all." But the man who kick-started the concept of an African Renaissance remains hamstrung by an ineffective bureaucracy, corruption, and political infighting, and Mbeki's favorite rhetorical question in recent years has become, "Will the center hold?" The line was written by one of Mbeki's favorite poets, Yeats, and gives some insight into a man who is often described as "obscure" and "perplexing." Ironic, given that Mbeki is one of the most candid and prolific communicators of all the world's leaders; every Wednesday, wherever he is on the globe, he takes out his laptop and taps out a 3,000-word essay canvassing a wide range of issues, though race and African identity are recurring themes, and posts his "Letter from the President" on the ANC website (www.anc.org.za). This is not an exercise in Hugo Chavez-like demagoguery, either: The essays are well written and intellectually provocative, and provide extraordinary insights into the president's thinking on the issues of the day. But Mbeki's Oxford-don demeanor does not sit well with the vast majority of South Africans. Instead, Mbeki's fellow travelers are the members of a New Establishment of black intellectuals, industrialists, and professionals who have prospered during his administration, many of them millionaires who benefited from the government's Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies.

Into this gap has marched the irrepressibly populist former deputy president, Jacob Zuma, whom Mbeki sacked in 2005 after Zuma's main business confidante and associate was convicted of corruption and sentenced to 15 years in jail. Encouraged by the ANC's two powerful alliance partners -- the trade union federation, COSATU, and the South African Communist Party, which now represents the traditional social democrat wing -- Zuma has doggedly pursued the ultimate prize, despite facing his own serious corruption investigation, and being dragged through a rape trial in 2006.

With a two-term limit, Mbeki must retire from office in 2009. And despite the breath of fresh air the dogged Helen Zille (aka "Godzille"), new leader of the official opposition, brings, the succession battle will take place within the ANC. As such it has consumed as much of the ANC's political energy as it has column inches in the press, and has posed the greatest ever threat to the ANC's unity. One way or the other, the matter will have been settled at the 5-yearly national conference in December 2007, and the man most likely to be the next president identified.

This succession battle was the first real challenge to Mbeki's question about whether the center will hold. The second arises from the reality of the socioeconomic landscape. The reality is degrading, even dangerous. "Are we ready to handle the revolution that is going to come from the underclass?" Thami Ngwenya, senior researcher for the National Development Agency asked a panel on chronic poverty in South Africa recently. "How do we stop the train that is speeding in the wrong direction?" By 2009 a new leader will be at the wheel. Will he be up to the task? Only time will tell, but given the achievements in the past decade -- the peaceful dismantling of apartheid, the creation of the world's most progressive constitution, the resuscitation of a bankrupt economy -- delivering "a better life for all" seems ultimately achievable.

Truth + Guilt + Apology = Reconciliation?

Following South Africa's first democratic elections in 1994, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was formed to investigate human rights abuses under apartheid rule. The many victims of apartheid were invited to voice their anger and pain before the commission, headed by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, and to confront directly the perpetrators of these abuses in a public forum. In return for full disclosure, aggressors, regardless of their political persuasion, could ask for forgiveness and amnesty from prosecution. Although many white South Africans went into denial, many more for the first time faced the realities of what apartheid meant. Wrenching images of keening relatives listening to killers, some coldly, others in tears, describing exactly how they had tortured and killed those once officially described as "missing persons" or "accidental deaths" were broadcast nationwide. Those whom the commission thought had not made a full disclosure were denied amnesty, as were those who could not prove that they were acting on behalf of a political cause. While some found solace in the process, many more yearned for a more equitable punishment than mere admission of wrongdoing.

Twenty-seven months of painful confessions and $25 million later, the commission concluded its investigation, handing over the report to Nelson Mandela on October 29, 1998. But the 22,000 victims of gross human rights violations had to wait until April 2003 to hear that each would receive a onetime payment of R30,000 ($4,478), a decision that was greeted with dismay by the victims. In contrast, big business (and most whites) were relieved to hear that the government had rejected the TRC's proposed tax surcharge on corporations, as well as the threatened legal action driven by New York lawyer Ed Fagan and others against companies that had benefited from apartheid, opting instead for "cooperative and voluntary partnerships." Mbeki emphasized that the TRC was not expected to bring about reconciliation but was "an important contributor to the larger process of building a new South Africa."

While it is true that the commission effected a more accurate rendition of recent history, its focus on an individualized rather than a collective approach to human rights abuses under apartheid demanded little by way of white acknowledgement of collective guilt for the suffering their fellow citizens endured. It is against this backdrop that the Home for All campaign launched in 2000. Initiated, ironically enough, primarily by whites involved in the liberation struggle, the campaign was supposed to indicate the willingness of white South Africans to accept that they had personally benefited from apartheid, with signatories pledging to use their skills and resources to contribute to "empowering disadvantaged people, and promoting a nonracial society whose resources are used to the benefit of all its people."

But apologies come hard in South Africa: According to Reconciliation Barometer, published by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, only 22% of whites believed they had benefited from apartheid, and only 29% believed that they should apologize. While it is laudable of the government to "build on the future rather than dwell any further on the past," it is feared that as long as this kind of complacency rules the hearts of the privileged minority, South Africa's democracy remains fragile indeed. But if airing your grievances is halfway to healing, the debate remains robust, with the pros and cons of the government's semi-enforced "affirmative action" policies dominating the letters pages of local newspapers. In the meantime, forgiveness continues to take place, albeit in individual hearts. You can read some South African stories on www.theforgivenessproject.com.