You’ve read the news: The U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history. TSA agents and air traffic controllers haven’t been paid in over a month, so Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has announced that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 airports nationwide, starting Friday, November 7.
About 2,700 up to 4,000 fewer flights a day will take off, stranding some 270,000 passengers daily? Duffy is calling this move "proactive." Most, but not all, affected airports are major hubs and gateways; a complete list is here.
Now the question is whether Thanksgiving 2025 will be ruined for millions of Americans. How many will not be able to reach their loved ones?
Let’s not forget that the number of stranded passengers will skyrocket the longer the shutdown persists. The closer we get to Thanksgiving, the more crowded flights will be and the airlines will be increasingly unable to find empty seats for those whose earlier flights were cancelled.
What to do if you’re traveling soon
First off, we should note that international flights are not being cancelled, just domestic ones. So you should be OK if you’re flying out of the country, but some of the suggestions below may still be helpful.
Consider driving, taking the train, or postponing your trip. Many airlines are allowing passengers to cancel their plans without penalty.
For example, United is allowing full refunds—even for nonrefundable and Basic Economy fares—for anyone who opts out. American is also allowing cancellation refunds, while Delta is specifically offering refunds only on flights transiting the 40 "impacted markets," while Southwest is only refunding for canceled flights.
Normally, you can't get refunds on every ticket type, but new rules are in place during the crisis. Bottom line: Check with your carrier(s).
Taking advantage of a refund may be a wise move in light of how hard it could be to find a replacement flight.
Frommer's has detailed the special rebooking/cancellation terms for domestic airlines, and the policies vary widely.
Consider buying a “backup ticket.” This idea is a little piece of genius, and it only works because the airlines are being so liberal with refunds right now.
Book a fallback option that you'll be allowed to cancel without penalty. Last week, Frontier CEO Barry Biffle took to social media to offer the following advice: "I highly recommend booking a backup ticket on another carrier... If your flight is cancelled, your chances of being stranded are high, so I would simply have a [refundable] backup ticket on another airline."
Could backup tickets involve risk? Absolutely. But then, so does flying during a government shutdown.
Consider using a secondary airport. Not only do smaller secondary airports usually offer "reduced congestion and fast turnaround times," but they're also less likely to face cancellations since the bulk of the FAA-mandated reductions are at about 40 major hubs.
Going from a smaller airport could mean you get on a flight that actually goes. So consider those suburban and outlying facilities, even if it means a longer drive.
Make sure your airline knows how to contact you: Sometimes when you book through a third party seller, your airline isn’t given your contact information. So make sure that your carrier knows how to contact you, either via text or email.
Easiest solution? Download your airline's app and request real-time alerts so you're aware of potential flight disruptions. Turn on notification for that app.
Also, as Jason Cochran detailed here last week, there are key reference websites you can use to stay informed about airport delays and cancellations.
Get to the airport early. The system is strained beyond its limits due to absent TSA screeners. In Houston, wait times have exceeded three hours; in Chicago, five hours. This year, early means early.
If your flight is cancelled, be persistent and strategic. Use every tool you have at your disposal, including standing on line at the counter (if you’re already at the airport) to phoning your carrier. Use the chat tools on the airline's app. Or—surprisingly, this can be most effective—sling comments their way on social media.
You’ll have a planeload of competition getting rebooked, so often the first person to get through to an airline, or the most persistent, is the first passenger sent on their way to their destination.
Pack light. With all of this chaos at the airport, now is not the time to gamble on baggage handling, especially if you have connecting flights. You don’t want to spend the first part of your vacation doing paperwork for a missing or delayed bag.
Carry-ons only during this crisis.
What to do if you’re flying for Thanksgiving
Traditionally, the busiest American air travel day of the year is the Sunday after Thanksgiving, and the second busiest is the Wednesday before it. Kayak's forecast indicates this year Wednesday, November 26 is expected to be the most crowded, and it's worth noting that same day will mark the ninth week of the shutdown.
The 26th will also usher in the third consecutive month that air traffic controllers, TSA airport screeners, and other essential federal employees will be working without pay.
Kayak notes the busiest airports during that holiday weekend could be Atlanta, Boston, Chicago/O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Los Angeles (LAX), Newark, New York (JFK), San Francisco, and the three Washington, DC, facilities.
The website also estimates Monday November 24 will be best travel day to "dodge chaos."
We mention all of this just in case you’ll be flying on one of these days or from one of these airports. Our advice will be more important than ever—especially the part about getting to the airport early.
And if you haven't yet booked your Thanksgiving ticket, here's a recent article by Pauline Frommer on how to pick the best and most affordable flights.
What's next?
Unfortunately, history has shown shutdowns leave a long trail of problems.
As I wrote here last month, even if the shutdown ends immediately, we'll be recovering for some time. Little attention is being paid to the thousands of FAA safety inspectors who've been furloughed, leaving the airlines and manufacturers like Boeing to police themselves. The 2018–2019 shutdown contributed in part to the second fatal Boeing 737 MAX crash.
And last week the President of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association said, "I don't think we'll see the damage until well after the shutdown ends, seeing air traffic controllers resign." He noted we were already down 300–400 controllers since 2019, and that was before this mess.
Little wonder so many Americans are now rethinking their travel plans.
Unfortunately, flying has become the worst way to go over the river and through the woods for turkey this year.
Safe travels.
William J. McGee is the Senior Fellow for Aviation & Travel at American Economic Liberties Project. An FAA-licensed aircraft dispatcher, he spent seven years in airline flight operations management and was Editor-in-Chief of Consumer Reports Travel Letter. He is the author of Attention All Passengers and teaches at Vaughn College of Aeronautics. There is more at www.economicliberties.us/william-mcgee/.